CNN Today

El Nino Holds Eastern Hurricanes in Check

Aired April 7, 1998 - 4:13 p.m. ET 

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT
BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. 

NATALIE ALLEN, CNN ANCHOR: More weather for you.
We may be running out of things to blame on El Nino, the
phenomenon is weakening as the hurricane season
approaches. And as hurricane seasons go, scientists expect
this year's to be pretty ordinary. 

Here's CNN's John Zarrella. 

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) 

JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT
(voice-over): Ravaged by wind and rain and tornadoes,
residents of California and the Southeastern United States
couldn't wait until El Nino lost its punch. Now that the
weather phenomenon appears to be fading, people who live
in hurricane prone areas may soon wish it was back. 

CHRIS LANDSEA, NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCHER:
El Nino is a good guy in this regard. It makes for a
quieter hurricane season. 

ZARRELLA: That's what happened last season. But, Chris
Landsea and Colorado State University professor Bill Gray,
who annually collaborate on a hurricane season forecast,
don't expect a repeat. 

LANDSEA: This wedge kind of colder than normal weathers
is starting to push eastward. So as that pushes eastward
the El Nino fades. 

ZARRELLA: Last summer, only a handful of storms
formed. Strong winds created by El Nino blew across the
Atlantic. Those winds tore the tops of developing storms,
keeping them from organizing into hurricanes. With El Nino
fading, the shearing winds should end, too. That leads Gray
and Landsea to forecast at least ten tropical storms will
form, six of them becoming hurricanes, an average year. 

LANDSEA: Our best estimate at this point is that El Nino
will fade to near normal conditions by the heart of
hurricane season: August, September, October. 

ZARRELLA: Of course, where weather is concerned,
nothing is a certainty. Gray and Landsea say if El Nino
effects linger, the upcoming tropical season may still be a
washout. Atmospheric scientist Terry Faber agrees. 

TERRY FABER, UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI WEATHER
RESEARCH SCIENTIST: The fact that this El Nino is
forecasted to be about neutral, maybe still a little bit above
normal come this hurricane season, we do expect slightly
below normal hurricane activity this fall. 

ZARRELLA: But hurricane forecasters caution that looking
at numbers alone can be misleading, and sometimes lead to a
false sense of security. 

(on camera): 1992 was an El Nino year. The first named
storm of the season didn't develop until August.
Unfortunately, that storm was Andrew, the worst natural
disaster in U.S. history. 

John Zarrella, CNN, Miami. 

(END VIDEOTAPE) 




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